Public Health News

Model tracks the opioid crisis over 21 years to better understand its evolving nature and guide the country’s policy response — ScienceDaily

A data-driven simulation model designed to help policymakers to better understand and address the nation’s rampant opioid crisis has been developed by a team of scientists at Massachusetts General Hospital (MGH). In a study in the journal PNAS, researchers report that the model, known as SOURCE (Simulation of Opioid Use, Response, Consequences, and Effects), presents […]

Public Health News

Scientists develop ‘optimal strategies’ computer model that could significantly reduce future COVID-19 infections and deaths — ScienceDaily

A team of scientists from Nanyang Technological University, Singapore (NTU Singapore) has developed a predictive computer model that, when tested on real pandemic data, proposed strategies that would have reduced the rate of both COVID-19 infections and deaths by an average of 72 per cent, based on a sample from four countries. The model, called […]

Public Health News

New mathematical model incorporates human behavior — and the fears that drive it — to better predict multiple waves of infections — ScienceDaily

A new mathematical model for predicting infectious disease outbreaks incorporates fear — both of disease and of vaccines — to better understand how pandemics can occur in multiple waves of infections, like those we are seeing with COVID-19. The “Triple Contagion” model of disease and fears, developed by researchers at NYU School of Global Public […]

Public Health News

Scientists model ‘true prevalence’ of COVID-19 throughout pandemic — ScienceDaily

Government officials and policymakers have tried to use numbers to grasp COVID-19’s impact. Figures like the number of hospitalizations or deaths reflect part of this burden. Each datapoint tells only part of the story. But no one figure describes the true pervasiveness of the novel coronavirus by revealing the number of people actually infected at […]

Public Health News

Researchers use mathematical model to simulate COVID-19’s spread in the classroom — ScienceDaily

Proactive, frequent rapid testing of all students for COVID-19 is more effective at preventing large transmission clusters in schools than measures that are only initiated when someone develops symptoms and then tests positive, Simon Fraser University researchers have found. Professors Caroline Colijn and Paul Tupper used a mathematical model to simulate COVID-19’s spread in the […]

Public Health News

Will COVID-19 eventually become just a seasonal nuisance? Scientists model possible COVID-19 futures — ScienceDaily

Within the next decade, the novel coronavirus responsible for COVID-19 could become little more than a nuisance, causing no more than common cold-like coughs and sniffles. That possible future is predicted by mathematical models that incorporate lessons learned from the current pandemic on how our body’s immunity changes over time. Scientists at the University of […]

Public Health News

New model proves successful in predicting COVID-19 infection rates two to three weeks in advance — ScienceDaily

A new study by Texas A&M University researchers published in PLOS ONE details a new model for making short-term projections of daily COVID-19 cases that is accurate, reliable and easily used by public health officials and other organizations. Led by Hongwei Zhao, professor of biostatistics at the Texas A&M School of Public Health, researchers used […]

Public Health News

Network model findings could shape public health policy for airborne viruses — ScienceDaily

Studies show wearing masks and social distancing can contain the spread of the COVID-19 virus, but their combined effectiveness is not precisely known. In Chaos, by AIP Publishing, researchers at New York University and Politecnico di Torino in Italy developed a network model to study the effects of these two measures on the spread of […]

Public Health News

Severe undercounting of COVID-19 cases in U.S., other countries estimated via model — ScienceDaily

A new machine-learning framework uses reported test results and death rates to calculate estimates of the actual number of current COVID-19 infections within all 50 U.S. states and 50 countries. Jungsik Noh and Gaudenz Danuser of the University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center present these findings in the open-access journal PLOS ONE on February 8, […]

Public Health News

Mortality rises among public when health workers get sick in an outbreak, model suggests — ScienceDaily

When healthcare workers become ill during a disease outbreak, overall case counts and mortality rates may significantly increase, according to a new model created by researchers at Penn State. The findings may help to improve interventions that aim to mitigate the effects of outbreaks such as COVID-19. “Each year dozens of potentially lethal outbreaks affect […]